The Market Reset: Why Selling for Less Isn’t Always a Loss
By Leigh Martinuzzi of Martinuzzi Group – eXp Realty | Sunshine Coast Real Estate
For most of the past five years, the property market has favoured sellers. Earlier this year, that started to change, and many homeowners are now facing something new: selling in a buyer’s market. Buyers now have more choice, borrowing capacity has tightened with each rate rise, and many homeowners are trying to work out what their property is really worth in this new phase.
I think of it as a reset. Buyers and sellers are both still working out what the new normal looks like. Until they do, there can be a gap between what sellers expect and what buyers are prepared to pay.
This week, I want to talk about that gap. I also want to talk about one idea that I know is hard to get your head around if you’re thinking of selling.
What the Latest Figures Show
According to Cotality’s latest Home Value Index, national dwelling values fell 1.1% in September. That was the sixth monthly fall in a row, and it leaves values 5.2% below the record high set in March. Over the past 12 months, national values are essentially flat.
Interest rates are a big part of the story. On 29 September, the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.60%. It was the fourth increase this year and takes the cash rate to its highest level since 2011. The RBA has also said further increases remain possible if needed, with the next decision due on 3 November. I covered that decision in more detail in last week’s update.
Each rate rise reduces how much buyers can borrow. Cotality’s research director, Tim Lawless, pointed out that higher mortgage costs and ongoing living expenses are shrinking the pool of buyers who can qualify for a loan, as well as how much they can pay.
At the same time, homes are taking longer to sell. Cotality reported that capital city homes are now taking a median of 39 days to sell, compared with 23 days a year ago. Advertised stock across the capitals is also around 23% higher than this time last year. More stock and fewer qualified buyers is what shifts the balance from sellers towards buyers.
Why This Adjustment Takes Time
In my experience, when the market moves into a new phase like this, it usually takes somewhere between eight months and a year and a half to settle. This one may take a little longer. Prices climbed so much over the past few years that it could take more time for buyers and sellers to agree on where the new level sits.
Right now, many buyers are hesitant. Some are holding off because they think prices could fall further over the next 12 months. Many sellers, meanwhile, are holding on to price expectations formed during the boom.
Neither side is wrong for feeling that way. But while those two views sit apart, fewer sales happen. Cotality estimates that national home sales over the past three months were around 19% lower than a year earlier.
Selling in a Buyer’s Market: The Hardest Part to Accept
This is the psychological side of selling, and it’s something I talk to homeowners about often.
Let’s say you’ve had it in your mind that your home is worth $1 million. Then the market shifts. Using the national decline of around 5% as a simple example, that property may now be worth closer to $950,000.
On paper, that can feel like losing $50,000. In reality, the $1 million was a value at a particular point in time. The $950,000 is what the property is worth in today’s market. You haven’t lost money you had. The market has moved, and the price has moved with it.
For many long-term owners, the bigger picture is still very positive. Cotality’s figures show regional Queensland dwelling values, which include the Sunshine Coast, are still around 52% higher than they were five years ago, even after the recent dip. For many homeowners who bought before the boom, selling a little below the peak could still mean walking away with a substantial gain.
That isn’t the case for everyone. Owners who bought close to the top of the market are in a different position, which I wrote about recently in One in Three Recent Buyers Are Now Behind. If that sounds like you, timing and strategy matter even more.
Most Sellers Are Also Buyers
The other thing worth remembering is that most people selling are also buying. Whether they’re upsizing, downsizing or making a sideways move, they’re selling and buying in the same market.
If the market has softened for the home you’re selling, it has generally softened for the home you’re buying as well. The lower price on one side can often be balanced out on the other.
For example, say you’re selling a $1 million home to buy a $1.5 million one. If both fall by 5%, the gap between them shrinks from $500,000 to $475,000. In that situation, a softer market may actually make your next step more achievable.
Downsizers may find the reverse, with a slightly smaller amount left over after the move. That’s why I encourage sellers to focus on the difference between the two prices, rather than on what their current home might have sold for at the peak.
What This Means for Buyers
For buyers, this phase brings more choice, more time and more room to negotiate than we’ve seen in years. The trade-off is that borrowing capacity is tighter. If you had a pre-approval in place before the latest rate rise, it may be worth checking it with your lender.
Some buyers are waiting for prices to bottom out, which is understandable. The challenge is that the bottom is usually only clear in hindsight. Finding the right property at a fair price often matters more than trying to time the market perfectly.
What It Means on the Sunshine Coast
Regional markets have held up better than the capitals so far. Cotality’s data shows regional Queensland values are 2.8% below their May peak, compared with 5.2% nationally, and are still 6.3% higher than a year ago.
The shift is reaching us, though. Regional Queensland values fell 0.9% in September and 2.5% over the past three months.
In a market like this, the homes that tend to sell well are the ones priced for today’s conditions from the start, presented properly and backed by a clear strategy. Guesswork based on last year’s prices can cost sellers time, and sometimes money.
Getting Clarity Before You Decide
A market reset can feel unsettling, but it doesn’t have to stop you making a good decision. What matters most is understanding where your property sits today and how your sale and next purchase work together.
If you’re wondering what your home could be worth in the current market, or how a move might look for you, I’m always happy to have a no-pressure chat. A clear, up-to-date picture can make a real difference before you make any big decisions.
Get in touch with us today and and let’s give you fantastic results that you deserve.
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Sources: Property Update; Domain House Price Report (June 2026) and Matching Demand Report (September 2026); Cotality Home Value Index and Monthly Housing Chart Pack (September 2026); Reserve Bank of Australia.
