One in Three Recent Buyers Are Now Behind: What That Means on the Sunshine Coast
By Leigh Martinuzzi of Martinuzzi Group – eXp Realty | Sunshine Coast Real Estate
Key takeaways
- – Analysis published by Cotality found roughly one in three homes bought across Australia in the past year would now resell for less than the buyer paid. In Sydney and Melbourne it is closer to half.
- – The damage is concentrated at the top end. Cotality’s September Chart Pack puts upper-quartile house values 10.7% below peak in Sydney and 10.5% below peak in Melbourne.
- – The Sunshine Coast eased just 0.5% over the three months to July, against a 3.1% national fall over the three months to August. Local values are still 11.6% higher over the year, at a median of $1.272 million.
- – Selling conditions have softened. The national median time on market is now 39 days, up from 28 a year ago, while local listings rose 11.5% over the year and sales lifted only 1.7%.
What the numbers actually show
According to that same analysis, around half of recent buyers in Sydney and Melbourne are now sitting below their purchase price. In Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, it drops to closer to one in five.
The severity varies too. Of those in the red nationally, most are down by less than 5%. A smaller group sits between 5% and 10%, and only a small fraction have fallen more than 10%.
Cotality’s September Housing Chart Pack, released today, shows where the real damage sits. Upper-quartile house values are now 10.7% below their peak in Sydney and 10.5% below in Melbourne.
In other words, the bulk of that one-in-three figure is being driven by expensive houses in two cities.
Cotality’s Head of Research, Gerard Burg, noted that the falls started in higher-priced properties in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra, and have since broadened into Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth. He also pointed out that the largest declines are still concentrated at the top end of the market.
Nationally, dwelling values slipped 3.1% over the three months to August, and annual growth has eased back to 2.7%.
Three things that got us here
Interest rates turned. After three cuts through 2025 took the cash rate down to 3.60%, the Reserve Bank moved the other way, lifting rates in February, March and again in May to 4.35%. It has held steady since, with the next decision due on 29 September.
Every one of those rises reduces what a bank will lend. That puts a ceiling on what buyers can pay, no matter how much they want a particular property, and it is the single biggest reason the market has cooled.
The deposit scheme reshaped the entry level. On 1 October 2025 the federal government expanded what is now called the Australian Government 5% Deposit Scheme, removing income limits, scrapping the cap on places and lifting property price thresholds across the board.
Cotality’s Kaytlin Ezzy noted at the time that the higher caps brought around 63% of the house and unit markets analysed nationally under the limits. Predictably, demand concentrated below those thresholds.
Buyers who came in with a small deposit have less of a cushion if values move against them. That said, government figures suggest most participants actually put down more than the 5% minimum, so this group may be less exposed than the headlines imply.
Investor tax rules changed. From 1 July 2027, the 50% capital gains tax discount will be replaced with cost base indexation and a 30% minimum tax on net gains held longer than twelve months. Negative gearing on established residential property will also be limited, applying to properties bought after 7.30pm on 12 May 2026.
Properties held before that date are grandfathered, and new builds remain exempt. These changes apply across all asset classes, not just property.
It is reasonable to think this has given some investors a reason to pause. I would be careful about overstating it though, because borrowing capacity is doing most of the work here.
Why that national figure is not a Sunshine Coast figure
Over the three months to July, Cotality’s Regional Market Update put Sunshine Coast dwelling values down 0.5%. Not 3.1%. Half a percent.
Over the year, values here were still 11.6% higher, taking the median dwelling value to $1.272 million. Over five years, the region is up 46.8%.
We are not immune. Values did ease, and I would rather say that plainly than pretend otherwise. But a 0.5% quarterly softening in a market that has gained close to half its value in five years is a very different story to a Sydney buyer who stretched for a premium house and is now 10% underwater.
The rental side reinforces the point. Median rent on the Sunshine Coast reached $871 a week, up 6.4% over the year, with vacancy sitting at 1.6%. That is still tight by any reasonable measure.
If you already own a home here
For most local homeowners, this news is not about you.
If you bought before 2025, you are almost certainly sitting on a substantial gain. A modest quarterly easing barely registers against five years of growth.
The people genuinely exposed are those who bought very recently, particularly at the premium end, and particularly in the capitals. That is a much smaller group than the headline suggests.
The one caveat I would add is this. An index is an average of thousands of properties, and you do not own an average. Your street, your land size, your outlook, your build quality and your buyer pool can all put you well above or below the regional number.
If you are thinking about selling
The market has genuinely changed pace, and that is worth planning around rather than reacting to.
Nationally, Cotality has the median time on market at 39 days, up from 28 days this time last year. The median vendor discount across the capitals has widened to 4.2%, which is the highest level since January 2023. Total listings have climbed above 139,100, up 18.1% over the year.
Locally, for-sale listings across the Sunshine Coast rose 11.5% over the year to around 2,792, while sales lifted just 1.7%.
I wrote last week about why stock keeps building even as fewer owners list, and the same dynamic is showing up in these local numbers.
That gap matters more than any price index. More homes competing for a buyer pool that has not grown at the same rate means presentation, pricing and campaign strategy carry more weight than they did eighteen months ago.
Well-prepared homes priced to the current evidence are still selling. Homes priced to last year’s headlines are the ones sitting.
If you are buying
Conditions have shifted in your favour, at least on the margins.
Longer selling times and wider vendor discounting mean there is more room to negotiate and more time to do proper due diligence. That is a meaningful change from the pace we saw through 2024 and much of 2025.
The counterweight is borrowing capacity. With the cash rate at 4.35% and inflation still above the target band, most of the major banks are now expecting a rise before the end of the year rather than a cut.
If that eventuates, it may tighten what buyers can borrow further. For anyone currently pre-approved, it could be worth checking how sensitive your number is before you commit.
Where this leaves you
The honest answer to “is my home worth less than I paid” is that no national statistic can tell you.
It depends on when you bought, what you bought, where it sits and who is looking for it right now. A one-in-three figure calculated across the whole country cannot answer a question about one property in one suburb.prepare properly are still doing well. The gap between those two groups is simply less forgiving than it was.
If you have been wondering where your place actually sits in today’s market, it may be worth getting an updated read on it. Not because you need to do anything, but because it is far easier to make good decisions from real numbers than from headlines.
Get in touch with us today and and let’s give you fantastic results that you deserve.
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