Why Tight Supply and Cheaper Money Could Push Prices Higher on the Sunshine Coast
By Leigh Martinuzzi | Martinuzzi Property Group – eXp Australia
As we step into spring, the property conversation is heating up once again. New forecasts from Westpac suggest that the housing upswing still has room to run, with Sydney’s median house price tipped to rise by as much as $154,000 by the end of 2026. Closer to home, Brisbane is projected to notch up gains of around $100,000 over the same period. These are eye-catching figures, and while forecasts should always be treated with a degree of caution, the conditions underpinning them are very real: low stock levels, steady demand, and the likelihood of further rate relief from the Reserve Bank. For Sunshine Coast buyers and sellers, that cocktail often translates to stronger competition and firmer prices.
National Market Momentum
The latest housing market updates from Michael Yardney and Westpac reveal that the national market remains exceptionally tight. Across the capital cities there are just 68,000 listings on the market, a 15-year low and equivalent to only two and a half months of sales. Normally at this time of year, we’d expect to see closer to three and a half months’ worth of properties available. New listings are also running behind, lagging sales by about 7,500 properties.
This imbalance means that if demand increases, as it typically does when borrowing conditions improve, price pressures will intensify. Westpac notes that after the Reserve Bank’s third consecutive cash rate cut, buyer sentiment jumped strongly. The “time to buy” index rose another ten per cent in August, and with turnover expected to lift by 10 to 15 per cent heading into summer, the stage is set for further gains.
Prices, Sales and Market Indicators
According to Cotality’s September Housing Chart Pack, national dwelling values rose 1.8 per cent over the past three months and 4.1 per cent over the year. Brisbane continues to lead the charge among the major capitals, posting annual growth of nearly 8 per cent, while in the shorter term it surged another 1.3 per cent over the four weeks to September 9. By comparison, the combined capitals averaged 0.8 per cent growth.
Other key indicators highlight just how competitive conditions have become. Median time on market nationally edged up slightly to 33 days in the August quarter, but well-presented homes in high-demand cities are selling far faster, in Perth the median is just 14 days. Vendor discounting also tightened, with the national median at 3.3 per cent, and in Brisbane sellers conceded just 2.7 per cent off initial asking prices, reflecting strong buyer appetite.
Sales volumes remain robust. An estimated 43,000 transactions took place in August, lifting rolling 12-month sales to over 538,000, a two per cent annual increase. Auction activity has also strengthened, with clearance rates hovering near 70 per cent, the best levels seen in more than two years.
Supply and Construction Constraints
One of the biggest drivers of price pressure remains the ongoing shortage of new housing supply. Approvals fell sharply in July, down 8.2 per cent overall. While detached house approvals were flat, unit approvals plunged nearly 19 per cent. So far this year, monthly approvals remain about 20 per cent below the levels needed to meet the government’s Housing Accord targets. With borrowing costs easing and demand recovering, this lack of new supply is a critical factor supporting the price growth forecasts.
Mortgage lending costs also continue to trend lower. Average new variable rates in July slipped to 5.75 per cent for owner-occupiers and 5.94 per cent for investors, with shorter fixed terms easing as well. Investor demand remains firm, accounting for nearly 38 per cent of new lending.
What It Means for Buyers, Sellers and Investors
For sellers, these conditions point to an opportunity. With fewer listings, narrowing discounts, and improved buyer sentiment, spring could be an excellent window to take advantage of renewed competition. Homes that are well-priced and presented are more likely to draw multiple offers and sell within weeks.
For buyers, the challenge is twofold. While rate cuts have improved borrowing power, competition remains fierce due to limited supply. Securing pre-approval, acting quickly on quality listings, and having a clear limit in mind are essential strategies in this environment.
For investors, yields remain solid with the national gross rental yield sitting at 3.7 per cent, and regional markets averaging even higher at 4.4 per cent. With the Brisbane Olympics on the horizon and sustained demand for rental accommodation, South-East Queensland continues to attract significant investor interest.
Sunshine Coast Insights
Here on the Sunshine Coast, the story mirrors Brisbane’s momentum. Premium homes in lifestyle locations such as Buderim, Mountain Creek, Alexandra Headland and Peregian are attracting strong open-home attendance and swift offers. While the national median time on market is 33 days, many Coast homes are selling faster, particularly those that are move-in ready. Properties that need work or are priced ambitiously are taking longer, reflecting ongoing buyer caution.
Investor interest on the Coast is also picking up. The Olympic narrative is creating a sense of long-term opportunity in the region, and we’re seeing more early-stage enquiries about low-maintenance, high-yield homes. With limited new construction in the pipeline and building approvals lagging, the established market is likely to remain the primary focus for both local buyers and interstate investors.
Looking Ahead
With stock levels at historic lows, borrowing costs drifting down, and sentiment improving, the foundations for further growth remain in place. If Westpac’s forecast holds true, Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast stand to benefit strongly through 2026. For those considering a move, the key is clarity. Sellers should prepare thoroughly and act decisively in the spring window, while buyers and investors must focus on fundamentals and be ready to move when the right opportunity presents itself.
If you’d like help navigating the market, whether you’re buying, selling, or just planning ahead, feel free to reach out.
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