What 2026’s Two Halves Market Means for the Sunshine Coast Property Market
By Leigh Martinuzzi | Martinuzzi Property Group – eXp Australia
As we settle into 2026, the property conversation feels very different to a couple of years ago.
Nationally, we have just come off another year of solid price growth. Brisbane, Perth and Darwin finished 2025 at or near record highs, while Sydney and Melbourne lost a bit of momentum at the end of the year as inflation ran hotter than hoped and the RBA talked tougher on interest rates.
At the same time, consumer confidence has slumped. Households are clearly feeling cost of living pressures, even as property values hold up.
Overlay that with the growing debate about housing affordability and a simple question keeps coming up. Not just “will prices keep rising” but “how expensive do we actually want property to be” and what happens when too many people are locked out of ownership or decent rentals.
On the Sunshine Coast, we are seeing all of this play out at once. Strong prices in key pockets, a rental market that is still very tight, and buyers and tenants who are far more conscious of affordability than they were in the frenzy of recent years.
What the latest data is telling us
Fresh housing data from late 2025 shows that growth is still there, but momentum has shifted.
National dwelling values rose over the December quarter and across the year, but the pace of gains slowed into year end, especially in Sydney and Melbourne. In contrast, Brisbane, Perth and Darwin posted strong annual growth and ended the year at or close to record highs.
Sales activity actually increased over the year, and regional markets outperformed the combined capital cities on sales volumes. That lines up with what we see across South East Queensland, where lifestyle regions like the Sunshine Coast continue to attract buyers looking for both amenity and relative value.
On the supply side, listings remain tight. Total advertised stock finished the year well below the five year average nationally. Even though there was a lift in new listings through spring, strong buyer demand meant homes were being absorbed quickly, keeping overall stock low. That still points to conditions that favour sellers in many areas.
There is a note of caution though. Auction clearance rates eased quite sharply into December, falling from strong levels earlier in the quarter to their weakest point in about a year. That tells us buyers are still active, but becoming more selective and more price sensitive.
The rental story, a plateau not a crash
Australia’s rental market is not collapsing, it is evolving. Affordability will be the key theme of 2026, not just for tenants, but also for the investors who serve them.
Across the capital cities, house and unit rents remain at or near record highs after more than three years of uninterrupted quarterly increases. That run of growth is the longest on record. However, the pace has clearly slowed. In some cities, house rents are now flat or slightly lower than a year ago, while unit rents are still rising, but at a more moderate rate.
Vacancy rates have edged a little higher, yet they remain around historically low levels and well below what would normally be considered a balanced market. Rentals are still difficult to secure, but many households have reached an affordability ceiling and simply cannot absorb ongoing large rent increases.
Looking ahead, most forecasts suggest rents will continue to rise, just more slowly. Unit rents are expected to outperform houses in many markets as tenants trade down to smaller, more affordable dwellings. Medium term projections for apartments point to continued rental pressure and very low vacancy rates through to the end of the decade.
For investors, this signals the end of easy, automatic rent increases and a greater need for careful cash flow planning. For tenants, the pressure has not disappeared, but the market is clearly shifting from a blunt boom to a more nuanced, affordability driven phase.
Finance, rates and regulation
On the lending side, investors are back in a meaningful way.
The total value of new mortgage commitments reached a new high late last year, with investor lending driving much of that increase. Investors now make up a larger share of new lending than they have for many years, similar to levels seen in the middle of the last decade.
That rise in higher risk borrowing has drawn the attention of the regulator. APRA has announced new limits on high debt to income lending, placing tighter caps on loans at higher income multiples for both owner occupiers and investors. These changes come into effect from February and will add another layer of scrutiny to loan applications, particularly at higher price points.
The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at its final meeting of 2025 but adopted a more hawkish tone. With core inflation still above target, markets are now factoring in the possibility of further rate increases in 2026 if inflation does not continue to ease. Whether rates rise again or remain on hold, a return to ultra cheap money looks unlikely in the near term.
For buyers and existing borrowers, the message is clear. Borrowing capacity and buffers matter more than ever. Lenders are closely assessing household budgets, existing debts, and overall risk, and that discipline is likely to remain.
A year of two halves for 2026
Many commentators are framing 2026 as a year of two halves.
The first half of the year is expected to be the stronger period. First home buyer incentives are flowing through, wages are gradually improving, and listing numbers remain relatively low. Together, these factors should continue to support prices in many markets, particularly in suburbs with strong amenities and consistent demand.
The second half of the year is where affordability ceilings are likely to become more visible. If interest rates do not fall materially, borrowing capacity will remain constrained and household budgets will continue to feel pressure from living costs. In that environment, more affordability sensitive outer areas may slow first, while better located inner and middle ring suburbs with higher incomes and limited supply are expected to hold up more strongly.
Price forecasts broadly reflect this outlook. Moderate growth is expected across most capital cities, but with clear fragmentation between locations and property types. Well located houses remain highly sought after, while established, family friendly apartments in lifestyle locations are likely to see increased demand from buyers priced out of freestanding homes.
Population growth continues to underpin the broader picture. Australia is on track to add millions more residents over the coming years. Combined with constrained housing supply, this supports ongoing demand for well located property.
What this means for buyers, sellers and investors
For buyers, the shift is from a rising tide market to a more selective one.
Price growth is likely to continue in many areas, but not evenly. Asset quality, location, and long term fundamentals matter more than chasing short term momentum. Flexibility on dwelling type and suburb can open up better opportunities. For some buyers, that may mean choosing a townhouse or low rise apartment in a prime location rather than stretching too far for a compromised house.
Having finance ready, with pre approval in place and realistic buffers built into your calculations, will be critical. In a market with closer scrutiny on borrowing, discipline can show up as a real competitive advantage.
For sellers, tight stock remains supportive. With listings still well below normal levels, well presented homes in desirable locations can attract strong interest. However, buyers are no longer paying any price. Over ambitious pricing can lead to longer campaigns and missed opportunities. Strategy, presentation, and accurate pricing based on very recent comparable sales are essential.
For investors, the focus should be on long term performance rather than short term gains.
The rental market remains tight and yields in many areas are stronger than they were several years ago. However, affordability constraints mean forward planning should assume steady or modest rent increases rather than another surge. It is also sensible to factor in policy risk as housing affordability becomes a larger political issue.
Quality assets tend to perform best through these shifts. Family friendly homes and boutique apartments in land constrained, higher income areas close to schools, jobs, parks, and transport are generally more resilient. Properties with the potential to add value through renovation or improvement also provide an extra layer of protection compared with purely speculative purchases.
What we’re seeing on the Sunshine Coast
Here on the Sunshine Coast, the national themes are very visible, but with our own local flavour.
On the sales side, quality property remains tightly held. Premium suburbs, from blue chip beachside pockets through to tightly held hinterland towns, continue to see strong enquiry when a well presented home comes to market. There is genuine depth of demand for renovated family homes close to the beach, within key school catchments, and near major employment hubs.
Demand is also growing for townhouses and units in walkable, lifestyle oriented areas such as Maroochydore, Mooloolaba, Buderim, and parts of the southern corridor. Many buyers who might have stretched for a standalone house in earlier years are now placing greater value on location and lifestyle, and are comfortable trading land size for amenity and convenience.
Interstate interest remains a consistent feature of the Sunshine Coast market, particularly from Sydney and Melbourne buyers who see the region as offering a compelling blend of lifestyle and relative value. At the same time, many local owners are making thoughtful moves within the Coast, upsizing, downsizing, or repositioning closer to schools and amenities, but with careful consideration given to repayments in a higher rate environment.
On the rental side, the Coast remains one of the tightest markets in the country.
Vacancy levels are still well below what would be considered balanced, and most well priced homes continue to attract strong interest. Co tenancy arrangements are becoming more common as households combine to secure the right home in the right location.
There are early signs of adjustment at the margins. Some landlords are finding that pushing too hard on rent increases leads to longer vacancy periods, and are instead prioritising stability and long term tenants. This aligns with the national picture of slowing rent growth, even though headline rents remain high.
Local projects and the decade long tailwind
A major part of the Sunshine Coast story is the scale of infrastructure and economic transformation underway.
The continued development of the Maroochydore City Centre, expansion of the Sunshine Coast Airport, growth of the health precinct around the Sunshine Coast University Hospital, and ongoing transport upgrades are steadily reshaping the region. The lead up to the Brisbane Olympics is adding further momentum, with improved connectivity and facilities expected to deliver lasting benefits well beyond the event itself.
For local owners and investors, these projects are not about overnight booms. They represent a steady lifting of the region’s economic base through more jobs, better transport, improved amenities, and a stronger reputation as a place to live and work.
Final Thoughts
Looking ahead, the Sunshine Coast property market enters 2026 in a position of strength, but with a more measured and mature tone.
The foundations remain solid. Lifestyle demand is strong, population growth continues, infrastructure investment is reshaping the region, and housing supply remains constrained. At the same time, affordability, lending conditions, and policy settings are playing a larger role in shaping outcomes.
This is not a market that rewards rushing or guesswork. It rewards preparation, clarity, and good advice.
So the question becomes a simple one. Should you buy, should you sell, or should you just wait?
The right answer depends on your goals, your timing, and your personal circumstances. What matters most is having honest information and trusted guidance to help you make confident decisions.
At Martinuzzi Property Group, our focus is on helping clients stay informed, understand their options, and move forward with confidence, whether that means acting now or planning carefully for the future.
Our brand promise underpins everything we do. Honest advice. Exceptional communication. A stress free sale driven by proactive service and results that exceed expectations.
If you would like to talk through what the current market means for you, your property, or your next move on the Sunshine Coast, our team is here to provide direction, guidance, and results you can trust.
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