Sunshine Coast Property: Will Population Growth Keep Prices Strong?
by Leigh Martinuzzi MPG – eXp Realty
The Australian property market continues to keep us on our toes as we move through the first quarter of 2025. While the media likes to focus on month-to-month fluctuations, it’s always important to take a step back and consider the bigger picture – especially when looking at what’s happening nationally and how it impacts us here on the Sunshine Coast.
The latest CoreLogic housing data and Matusik’s population growth insights provide a clearer view of what’s really driving the market right now, and, as always, I’ve added my take on what it all means for property owners, buyers, and investors.
Let’s break it down.
A Market Taking a Breather
After a solid run of price growth throughout most of 2024, we’ve seen signs that the market is starting to ease, particularly across our capital cities. CoreLogic’s latest data shows national home values dipped -0.3% over the rolling quarter to January. Capital city markets led the decline, down -0.7%, while regional markets, including the Sunshine Coast, fared better, rising by 1.0%.
That’s not to say the market is in trouble. We’re more likely seeing the market taking a natural pause after last year’s growth, compounded by affordability pressures and high interest rates.
Interestingly, the lower end of the market is holding strong. The lower quartile values increased by 9.4% over the past year, compared to just 1.5% growth in the upper quartile. This shows that demand is strongest where properties are more affordable, particularly from first-home buyers and those looking to downsize into units or townhouses.
Sales activity also reflects this moderation, with 27,361 sales in January, bringing the total to 526,410 over the past year – slightly lower than the peak of 534,782 in the 12 months to October. Sales volumes have now dropped below the long-term average, suggesting buyers are becoming more cautious, or simply unable to stretch their budgets much further.
Population Growth Piling on the Pressure
While prices may be cooling slightly, Matusik’s latest population data makes one thing clear – demand for housing isn’t going anywhere. Australia’s population grew by a staggering 550,000 people in 2024, averaging an increase of 10,000 per week. Queensland alone welcomed 125,800 new residents last year, and with the Sunshine Coast being one of the state’s lifestyle hotspots, we’ve definitely felt that demand locally.
Looking ahead, the Australian Bureau of Statistics projects our national population will grow by another 470,000 people per year over the next five years – an extra 2.3 million residents by 2030. That’s essentially the equivalent of building another Perth to accommodate this growth.
What does that mean for housing? We’ll need roughly 1.2 million new homes – or 240,000 each year – just to meet this expected population growth. Given current building approval numbers and the struggles the construction industry is facing, we are nowhere near that target.
This supply-and-demand imbalance is the reason why, despite the occasional price dip, Australian property values are unlikely to “crash.” Population growth is simply too strong, and supply remains too tight.
What It Means for the Sunshine Coast
Locally, we are in a prime position. Demand for homes on the Coast remains solid, particularly for quality properties in lifestyle pockets. Buyers continue to seek out our region, whether they’re migrating from interstate or simply chasing the coastal dream.
We are seeing the same pattern here as nationally – A-grade properties and more affordable homes (under $800,000) are moving swiftly, while higher-end properties require a little more time and strategy to secure the right buyer.
With our region’s population set to keep expanding and large-scale developments like Aura and Harmony progressing, the long-term outlook for property values remains strong. However, we’re unlikely to see the double-digit growth of the COVID years. Instead, expect more moderate and sustainable increases.
Final Thoughts
While prices might have softened in some parts of the country, don’t be fooled into thinking the market is heading south. Demand for housing – driven by population growth – continues to underpin property values, especially in sought-after lifestyle markets like the Sunshine Coast.
If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just want to know what your property is worth in today’s market, reach out to me and the team at Martinuzzi Property Group. We’re here to help you make informed decisions and achieve the best outcome on your property journey.
And don’t forget – you can also check out my latest sellers guide – The Future of Home Selling on The Sunshine Coast: A Free 2025 Guide – perfect insights for those that may consider selling.
