Sunshine Coast Property Market Update: Strong Start to 2026 Amid Uneven National Signals
By Leigh Martinuzzi | Martinuzzi Property Group – eXp Australia
As we kick off 2026, the Australian housing market is showing a blend of resilience, structural shifts and clear signals that location, strategy and affordability will define outcomes this year. After a surprisingly strong 2025 for national home values, the market is starting 2026 with cautious optimism, but not without headwinds.
National Market: 2025 Surge, Slowing Momentum
The latest Cotality Home Value Index revealed a powerful 8.6% rise in national home values through 2025, the largest calendar year gain since 2021, lifting median dwelling values by around $71,400. However, momentum softened into year end with December up just 0.7%, marking the smallest monthly rise in five months and slight declines in Sydney and Melbourne. This suggests that buyer sentiment is already feeling pressure from affordability limits and rate concerns. The softer start into 2026 reflects a market that’s resilient but cautious.
Looking ahead, economists are forecasting more modest and uneven growth this year as inflation remains in focus, rate expectations stay elevated and affordability continues to stretch household budgets. Demand, research shows, is shifting downmarket as buyers gravitate to lower and middle price points where serviceability and value are more attainable.
Investor Sentiment, Strategy and Long Term Perspectives
Predicting the property market with precision remains difficult, and experts caution that many 2026 forecasts will likely miss key developments due to unpredictable factors like investor sentiment and policy shifts. Investor confidence is currently low, and data shows many investors exit too early, missing long term compounding benefits.
Key takeaways for investors in 2026:
- Timing the market is less important than strategic selection
- Investment success will hinge on choosing properties with intrinsic value, lifestyle appeal, redevelopment or value add potential
- Buyers focused on established growth corridors, often inner and middle ring areas, historically outperform broader averages
Policy drivers, such as expansion of the First Home Guarantee Scheme, are expected to support entry level demand, but rental market pressures and investor targeted taxation may influence investor behaviour and supply.
2030 Property Divide: Structural Drivers Matter
Longer term scenario modelling suggests Australia’s property landscape may widen between outperforming suburbs and those that lag by 2030. Chronic undersupply, strong migration and infrastructure expansion will continue to push prices where demand is strongest, but affordability headwinds, interest rates and policy changes may temper growth in other locations.
By 2030, if past trends continue, some areas, particularly in Queensland, could see significant capital growth, while less favoured markets may stagnate. This reinforces a message we’ve emphasised on the Sunshine Coast: location selection, demographic drivers and structural fundamentals always matter most.
Housing Supply: Approvals Spike Supports Future Growth
In late 2025, Australia’s dwelling approvals jumped to near four year highs, with a notable lift in higher density projects such as apartments, townhouses and semi detached homes. Apartment approvals surged over 60% in November, with Queensland leading the way, evidence that policy and planning reforms are beginning to unlock supply.
Detached house approvals also edged higher, and industry bodies expect building activity to continue strengthening as rate cuts filter through to construction starts. While a single month of stronger approvals doesn’t solve the national supply shortage, this momentum is encouraging and suggests 2026 could see meaningful increases in housing stock.
What This Means for Buyers, Sellers and Investors
Buyers:
Affordability remains tight, but there are opportunities in the lower to middle price brackets where demand is strongest. With tight supply in key segments, buyers who are prepared, finance pre approved and strategy clear, will be well placed to act when quality listings come to market.
Sellers:
While national growth may moderate, the Sunshine Coast continues to benefit from strong lifestyle appeal, interstate relocation and undersupply. Purposeful pricing and targeted marketing will be critical to capturing motivated buyers in this evolving landscape.
Investors:
Long term fundamentals remain supportive for strategic investors, particularly where location, lifestyle demand and rental scarcity align. Choosing the right assets and holding for growth rather than timing short term cycles will be more important than ever.
Sunshine Coast Market Observations
Locally, we’re seeing continued demand from lifestyle motivated buyers relocating from southern states, particularly those seeking space, amenity and affordability relative to major capitals. The supply of quality listings remains limited, especially for family homes and value added properties, a trend that supports price resilience even as broader markets soften.
Higher density projects are also gaining traction here, responding to demand from downsizers, investors and owner occupiers seeking low maintenance living close to beaches and services.
Market Opportunities on the Sunshine Coast
- Undersupply in family homes continues to support values in core suburbs
- Strategic development sites and renovation ready properties are attracting strong interest
- Lifestyle appeal and infrastructure investment remain key drivers of demand
If you’d like help navigating the market, whether you’re buying, selling, or just planning ahead, feel free to reach out. I’m ready to help however I can.
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