Sunshine Coast Property Market Update: Prices, Pressure, and What Comes Next
With Leigh Martinuzzi MPG – eXp Australia
Here’s what I’ve been reading and thinking about this week in real estate—for what it’s worth.
CoreLogic has reported that total transaction volumes for the first quarter of 2025 are up 4.6% compared to this time last year. That sounds like good news at face value, but the numbers don’t tell the full story. Over the past couple of years, we’ve had enormous population growth across the country, which naturally means more people needing homes. If anything, I would have expected to see even higher transaction volumes. The fact that we’re only slightly up tells me we’ve got a supply problem that’s not going away.
And when you drill into the detail, most of that growth is coming from places like Darwin, regional Victoria and WA, Melbourne, Adelaide, and Canberra. Meanwhile, regional Queensland—including here on the Sunshine Coast—has seen very little change in transaction volumes, despite welcoming an estimated 30,000 new residents in the past year alone. That’s a clear signal: more people, not enough housing.
This is a key issue that needs to be front and centre during the upcoming election. But I doubt we’ll see it. The focus will likely remain on “how to help people afford to buy” through grants and short-term incentives, rather than policies aimed at genuinely increasing housing supply—which is what would actually help stabilise prices.
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In March, CoreLogic put the combined value of Australia’s residential property market at $11.3 trillion. Of that, $2.4 trillion is tied up in housing loans. The rest? Household wealth. With 55.3% of Australia’s household wealth stored in residential property, no government, bank, or the RBA wants to see prices fall. Property is too deeply woven into the fabric of our economy.
This is exactly why, if inflation starts to rise or consumer confidence slips, I believe the RBA will step in quickly with rate cuts. We’ve already had one recently, and there’s widespread expectation that more are coming. If borrowing capacity goes up, demand rises again—and in a market still starved of supply, prices will keep climbing.
Thinking of selling? Let’s have a chat—I’d love to help you take the next step. You can schedule a free consultation here.
For now, it’s calm: the Easter holidays, school breaks, public holidays—it’s all keeping things a little quieter. But give it a few months and I think we’ll see the heat return.
CoreLogic also notes that national home values have increased nearly 40% over the past five years. That’s roughly a $230,000 rise in price. Wages haven’t come anywhere near keeping pace. Historically, we’ve seen even bigger price gains—75% in the late ’80s and nearly 80% in the early 2000s—but in today’s environment, the affordability gap is stark.
If you’re in buying or selling mode, I’ve also created this free resource – Sunshine Coast Home Sellers and Buyers Guide.
Interestingly, while we’ve seen national prices ease slightly in recent months, the first quarter still closed in positive territory—up 0.7%. That little boost could be a sign of what’s to come. Demand is building again and rate cuts are creating momentum. Prices are already starting to move, and the competition is heating up.
Rents continue to rise too. They grew 7.3% in 2023, 6.4% in 2024, and we’re expecting further increases this year. Vacancy rates remain critically low. Perth has seen a 19.9% rental increase in two years; Brisbane’s up almost 16%. Similar patterns were seen during the GFC, where people began to migrate further out of city centres or even to new towns in search of better affordability.
And here’s where I really align with Michael Yardney’s views this week. Both major political parties seem focused on offering quick-fix “solutions” to affordability—schemes for first-home buyers and incentives that look good on paper. But these do little to solve the core issue: we’re not building enough homes. Encouraging more people to buy in a supply-constrained market will only push prices higher, creating more competition and more frustration for buyers with less equity and borrowing power.
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If APRA lowers the serviceability buffer from 3% to 2%, and the cash rate drops to the projected 2.8% by the end of 2025, we’re going to see borrowing power jump. And that means prices will likely rise again unless something changes with supply. It’s hard to imagine—but quite plausible when you connect the dots.
That’s where I’m at this week. If you’re thinking about making a move, now’s a great time to get informed and be ready. Let’s chat. Connect with me here 🙌
