Price Upswings, Supply Challenges, and Escalating Demand
Weekly Real Estate Market Update with Leigh Martinuzzi MPG
In this blog post, I will dive into the current state of the Australian property market. Despite the cash rate sitting at 4.1% with expectations of further increases, property prices continue to rise. However, concerns loom over the “fixed rate cliff” as close to 900,000 Australian households are expected to come off their fixed rates by Christmas. Let’s explore the factors influencing the market and their potential impact on affordability and housing demand.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) suggests that the impending fixed rate transitions should not be a major issue as most mortgage debt is already on variable rates, with many households having already refinanced. Nonetheless, time will tell how these transitions affect household affordability. Despite rising interest rates, inflation, and the potential for a wage spiral, the Australian property market remains resilient.
After a rapid decline to a low of -9.7% in February 2023 from its peak in May 2022, dwelling values have started rebounding. While there is still a possibility of further declines, all signs currently indicate an upward trajectory in property prices. Over the past six months, combined capital city dwelling prices have experienced a growth rate of 2.8%. Brisbane’s prices also saw a modest increase of 0.3% in the previous week. These statistics highlight the ongoing strength of the property market. Auction clearance results also highlight a positive trend in buyer confidence and according to data by CoreLogic, have shown clearance rates above 70% for the past eight weeks.
In the last 12 months, there were 490,000 dwelling sales in Australia, accounting for a 4.5% turnover of the total 11 million homes (March 2023). Total average turnover usually sits around 5%, a sign of supply shortage and perhaps affordability. Although Queensland experienced a drop in sales volumes over the past year from above 12,500 to just above 9,000 in the first quarter of 2023, these numbers are comparable to pre-COVID levels. Historically, similar trends have occurred during previous boom markets, and with the market expected to peak again in the next few years before bottoming out, sales volumes may increase accordingly.
Total dwelling approvals across Australia fell by -8.1% in April 2023. Monthly dwelling approvals decreased by -22.8% in Queensland, with private sector housing approvals down by -6%. These figures suggest a trend of reduced property availability in the coming year or two. However, if property values continue to rise, more people may choose to sell, thereby increasing the supply.
According to CoreLogic, new listings are currently -20% below the previous decade’s averages. However, there has been an increase in investor listings coming up for sale. The portion of investment property listings for sale is currently at 30% of total stock, above the 10-year average of 25%. As owner-occupiers have more purchasing options, they may also list their homes for sale, thereby increasing supply and at the same time demand. This surge in market activity, combined with growing buyer demand, is expected to continue over the next 12 to 24 months.
Investors may be choosing to sell their properties for several reasons. Some might be attempting to time the market and sell before a potential downturn, while others may see the current low levels of property availability as an opportune time to sell, as selling in isolation often yields better results. Additionally, rising mortgage rates may outweigh the positive gains from rental fees, influencing investors’ decisions.
The demand for housing is set to increase further due to a surge in migration and the return of international students. Estimates suggest that an additional half a million people will need housing in Australia within the next two years. With declining land opportunities, construction costs increasing by over 25% in the last two years, and diminishing new dwelling approvals, more people are turning to established homes. Experts predict Australian dwelling prices to rise by 2% by the end of 2023, with PropTrack economist estimating a potential 4% rise in 2023 alone. Furthermore, when the RBA eases back on the cash rate, a further property boom is anticipated, potentially pushing prices up by 10% in 2024.
On the Sunshine Coast, the median house prices currently sit just above $1.1 million, experiencing a decline of -5.07% over the past 12 months. Total listings are at a record low of just over 500 properties, well below the decade average. Despite an average time on the market of 45 days, well-presented properties requiring minimal work are being snapped up quickly, as well as houses priced below $700,000. We are also seeing a slight improvement in the demand for units as detached housing opportunities are scarce and affordability constraints are still an issue.
In conclusion, the Australian property market is demonstrating resilience despite rising interest rates. The rebounding dwelling values, improved buyer confidence, and increased market activity indicate a positive outlook. However, the impact of households transitioning from fixed rates and potential mortgage stress should be monitored closely. With limited property availability and growing demand driven by various factors, the market is likely to remain active and dynamic in the coming years.
AUCTION CLEARANCE RATES
- Queensland – 44% (252/1099)
- NSW – 62% (909/1555)
- Victoria – 65% (762/1171)
- ACT – 66% (79/89)
- South Australia – 69% (97/353)
- Tasmania – NA (0/141)
- Western Australia – 50% (2/740)
- Northern Territory – 60% (5/31)
*(Auctions/Private Sales)
REVIEW(S) OF THE WEEK
I would always recommend Leigh and his team
Leigh streamlined the experience of selling my home. always professional, yet easy to communicate with and understanding of my needs. Leigh is well-organised, and never late and I felt that I could trust the information he shared about prospective buyers and the market in general. Overall, a successful team effort. Thank you Leigh! – Seller
