2026 Federal Budget Winners and Losers: What It Means for the Sunshine Coast Property Market
By Leigh Martinuzzi | Martinuzzi Property Group – eXp Australia
This week, the property conversation has been dominated by the 2026 to 2027 Federal Budget, and for good reason.
Budgets often come and go with a few cost-of-living measures, tax adjustments, and plenty of political commentary. But this one feels more significant for the property market because it goes directly to the heart of how Australians earn, invest, buy homes, and plan for the future.
From my perspective, the Budget sends two clear messages.
First, the government wants to ease pressure on working Australians through tax relief and simpler deductions. Second, it wants to shift the housing market away from tax-driven investment in established property and more toward home ownership and new housing supply.
That may benefit some groups. It may also create real challenges for others.
And as always with property policy, the outcome will depend not just on the intention, but on how buyers, sellers, investors, renters, builders, and lenders respond.
The Winners: Working Australians and First-Home Buyers
One of the clearer winners from the Budget is the working taxpayer.
The government has confirmed further tax cuts from 1 July 2026, with the 16 per cent tax rate on income between $18,201 and $45,000 to fall to 15 per cent. From 1 July 2027, that rate is set to fall again to 14 per cent. The Budget also states that every Australian taxpayer will receive a tax cut of up to $268 from 1 July 2026, then up to $536 every year from 1 July 2027, compared with the 2024 to 2025 tax settings.
There is also a proposed $1,000 instant deduction for work-related expenses from 1 July 2026, which should make tax time simpler for many workers. The PwC commentary I reviewed described these types of measures as helpful cost-of-living relief, but more of a recalibration than major structural reform.
For households, that is useful.
It is not life-changing money, and it will not suddenly solve housing affordability, but it does put a little more back into workers’ pockets. In a market where buyer confidence is closely tied to cost-of-living pressure, mortgage serviceability, job security, and interest rate expectations, even small improvements in household cash flow can matter.
First-home buyers are also being positioned as a key beneficiary.
The Budget papers state that the government is reforming negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions to help level the playing field for first-home buyers and support more Australians into home ownership.
In simple terms, the policy direction is this: make established homes less attractive for tax-driven investment, and encourage more investment into new housing instead.
If that works, first-home buyers may face less investor competition for some established homes. That could be meaningful, particularly after several years where younger buyers have had to compete with investors, interstate movers, downsizers, and lifestyle buyers.
For younger Australians and first-home buyers, this may be one of the first signs in a while that the market could start shifting slightly in your favour. If investors become more cautious, if more properties come to market, and if sellers start to feel less certain, buyers may slowly regain some negotiating power after several difficult years.
But opportunity rarely rewards those who simply sit back and wait.
The buyers who are most likely to benefit are the ones getting finance organised early, researching suburbs properly, understanding value, building a financial buffer, and preparing before confidence returns to the broader market.
In uncertain markets, opportunity often arrives quietly. It does not always look obvious at first, but for prepared buyers, this could be the moment to pay close attention.
The Losers: Some Investors, Trust Structures and Higher-Wealth Households
The most obvious group facing a tougher road is property investors buying established residential property in the future.
According to NAB Business’ Federal Budget analysis, the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount will be replaced by cost base indexation from 1 July 2027 for assets held for more than 12 months, with a 30 per cent minimum tax on net capital gains. NAB also notes that investors in new residential properties will be able to choose either the 50 per cent CGT discount or the new indexation and minimum tax method.
Negative gearing is also changing. The Budget’s tax explainer states that properties held before 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026 will be exempt from the negative gearing changes. It also states that CGT reforms will only apply to gains accruing after 1 July 2027.
That is important because this is not a blanket overnight change for every existing investor. Current holdings appear to be protected under the grandfathering arrangements. But for future investors, especially those looking at established houses or units, the numbers may look different.
There are also proposed changes for discretionary trusts. Budget Paper No. 2 lists a measure introducing a minimum tax on discretionary trusts, with the measure estimated to raise $4.47 billion in 2029 to 2030.
For some higher-wealth households, family groups, and investors using trust structures, this may reduce flexibility and increase tax payable. That does not mean every trust holder is doing anything wrong. Many people use these structures for legitimate business, asset protection, succession, or family reasons. But it does show the government is clearly targeting arrangements it sees as unfair or overly generous.
The Trade-Off: Helping Buyers Without Hurting Rental Supply
This is where the debate becomes more complicated.
I understand the intention behind the Budget. Housing affordability is a real issue. First-home buyers have been battling high prices, higher borrowing costs, limited supply, and years of strong competition.
If tax settings are helping investors outbid owner-occupiers for established homes, then it is reasonable for government to look at reform.
But investors also play a major role in providing rental housing.
On the Sunshine Coast, rental demand has remained strong, and rental availability has been tight for several years. Any policy that discourages investment needs to be handled carefully, because there is always a risk of unintended consequences.
Helping first-home buyers is important. But we do not want to help one group while unintentionally reducing rental supply for another.
The government’s approach appears to be designed to encourage investment into new housing rather than established homes. In theory, that makes sense. If investors are incentivised to fund new builds, that could help add supply rather than simply bid up the price of existing stock.
The challenge is delivery.
We can change tax rules quickly, but we cannot build homes overnight. Planning, infrastructure, construction costs, labour shortages, finance, and project feasibility all still matter. Unless new housing can be delivered at scale and in the right locations, we may simply shift investor behaviour without solving the deeper supply issue.
Sunshine Coast Supply Is Still the Bigger Local Issue
That is particularly relevant here on the Sunshine Coast.
Our region continues to face a long-term growth challenge. Sunshine Coast Council’s proposed planning scheme notes that the State Government forecasts the region’s population will increase by 219,000 residents between 2021 and 2046, requiring at least 84,800 new homes. Council is required to plan for around 60 per cent of new homes in existing urban areas and 40 per cent in new development areas.
That tells us the housing conversation locally is not just about tax.
It is about where people will live, how they will move around, and whether infrastructure keeps pace with growth.
If we want more homes on the Sunshine Coast, we need the roads, rail, public transport, schools, health services, community facilities, and employment centres to support them. Otherwise, we risk creating more dwellings without creating better liveability.
This is one of the areas where the Budget may leave some locals disappointed.
Sunshine Coast News reported this week that local leaders had hoped for stronger Budget support for significant regional projects, including stages two and three of The Wave public transport system, a business case for widening the Bruce Highway between Steve Irwin Way and Caloundra Road, and a regional indoor community sports centre. Mayor Rosanna Natoli welcomed the focus on housing affordability but said Council would have liked a stronger commitment to priority projects.
That is the practical side of housing affordability.
Tax settings matter. Buyer incentives matter. Investor behaviour matters. But if infrastructure does not keep pace with growth, affordability and liveability both remain under pressure.
What It Means for Buyers, Sellers and Investors
For buyers, this is a time to prepare, not panic.
If investor demand softens in some parts of the market, there may be more room to negotiate. But the best opportunities will go to buyers who have finance ready, know their target suburbs, and understand fair value before they make an offer.
For sellers, pricing strategy matters.
A changing tax environment may cause some investors and long-term owners to review whether they hold, sell, or restructure. Well-presented, well-priced homes in strong Sunshine Coast locations should continue to attract interest, but buyers are likely to remain selective.
For investors, this is a week to pause and get proper advice.
The proposed changes to negative gearing, CGT, and trust structures could affect decisions around buying, holding, selling, or shifting focus toward new builds. This is not an area for guesswork, and it is important to speak with an accountant or financial adviser before making any major move.
Locally, I expect established Sunshine Coast homes in sought-after areas to remain resilient, particularly where there is scarcity, lifestyle appeal, and access to services. But we may see investor attention shift toward new dwellings, townhouses, units, and projects that qualify for more favourable treatment under the proposed rules.
Final Outlook
The Budget has clear winners and losers.
Working Australians receive some tax relief. First-home buyers may benefit if investor competition cools. New housing may attract more investor attention.
But established property investors, some trust holders, and higher-wealth households are likely to face a less favourable tax environment. Renters could also be indirectly affected if investor participation drops and new supply does not arrive quickly enough.
That is why I think the honest view is this: the Budget is directionally important, but not a complete housing solution.
Housing affordability is not solved by one tax change. It is solved by more supply, better infrastructure, sensible planning, stable investment settings, and confidence from buyers, sellers, renters, and investors alike.
For the Sunshine Coast, the fundamentals remain strong: lifestyle demand, population growth, limited coastal land, and long-term supply pressure. But this Budget may change how different parts of the market behave over the next few years.
And for those who are informed and prepared, that could create opportunity.
If you’d like to talk through what this Budget announcement means for your situation specifically, we can offer you a complimentary property appraisal with our team.
It is completely free, with no obligation to sell. Our aim is simply to help you stay informed, understand your options, and make confident decisions in a changing market.
At Martinuzzi Property Group, we are here to deliver more than a sale. We guide you with radical honesty, exceptional communication, and a stress-free experience, backed by calm confidence, local expertise, and genuine care, so you feel informed, supported, and in control.
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