Australia’s Property Resilience: Global Risks, Record Profits, and What’s Next
by Leigh Martinuzzi MPG – eXp Australia
The global economic landscape is once again making headlines, and this week I’ve been diving into some interesting insights around how international markets—particularly the U.S. and China—could influence Australia’s property market. The two economic powerhouses continue to face their own challenges, and depending on how things unfold, we could see ripple effects locally, especially in housing.
One scenario being floated is that a global slowdown—driven by weak economic conditions in both the U.S. and China—could prompt central banks to cut interest rates. In Australia, we’ve already seen the first rate drop in a long while, and with another expected on the first of April, it’s clear that the Reserve Bank is keeping a close eye on inflation and broader economic stability. If this trend continues and we move into a cycle of cuts, borrowing capacity will improve and buyer demand is likely to ramp up even more. That would only intensify the current situation where demand already outweighs supply, pushing prices even higher.
On the flip side, if trade tensions between the U.S. and China escalate, that could cause global inflation to rise again. If that happens, central banks might be forced to respond with further rate hikes, which could slow down our housing market just as it starts to gain some renewed momentum. A more concerning scenario is one where inflation stays high while growth remains low—a stagflation-like environment—which could dent consumer confidence, job security, and ultimately property demand.
Meanwhile, CoreLogic’s latest report on resales shows just how resilient the Australian market has been in recent years. Across the December quarter, 94.4% of property resales nationally made a gross profit, and the median profit achieved was a record-high $310,000. That’s a big number. And it reflects just how much equity has been built over the last few years, particularly for those who’ve held their properties through recent growth cycles. That said, there’s a growing gap in performance depending on location and timing.
While many sellers walked away with solid profits, the proportion of loss-making resales ticked up slightly to 5.6%, with unit markets in inner-city areas and regions more reliant on investor stock showing weaker performance. Properties held for a shorter period—say under two years—were much more likely to result in a loss. So, once again, it pays to have a long-term view when it comes to real estate. The data clearly shows that those who held on to their properties for 8–10 years were far more likely to walk away with significant gains.
This also ties into a broader truth about the market: property values don’t move in straight lines, and the idea that homes double every 7 to 10 years isn’t a rule. Some markets move faster, some slower, and external economic factors—like rate cycles, migration trends, and global shocks—play a huge role. But history shows us that property values do trend upward over time. Check out last week’s article for more insights on this.
And closer to home, I’ve been saying for a while that I thought the Sunshine Coast was reaching peak prices. But I’ve been proven wrong—again. Over the last few months, we’ve seen another jump in prices, with some properties selling well above market expectations. Buyers remain eager for lifestyle-driven locations, and the Sunshine Coast is still top of the list for many people looking to escape the city without sacrificing quality of life. The ongoing lack of supply and the region’s desirability mean we’ll likely continue to outperform broader national averages, even if other markets flatten out. Perhaps we are in a bit of a Supercycle after all.
It’s a reminder that no one can truly time the market. But if you’re in it for the long game, real estate continues to prove itself as one of the most powerful wealth-building tools we have. Whether you’re buying, selling or just trying to make sense of what’s ahead, I’m always here to offer insights and advice to help you move forward with clarity and confidence.
