Breaking Down Cotality’s October 2026 Housing Chart Pack
By Leigh Martinuzzi of Martinuzzi Group – eXp Realty | Sunshine Coast Real Estate
Each month I sit down with Cotality’s Housing Chart Pack, and the October 2026 edition gives one of the clearest pictures we have had this year. The market has shifted. Values have eased for six months running, homes are taking longer to sell, and buyers have more room to negotiate than they have had in some time.
None of this is cause for alarm. It does, however, change how sellers and buyers may want to approach their next move. Here is what stood out to me and what it could mean for us here on the Sunshine Coast.
Interest rates are the main driver
The biggest influence on the market right now is the cost of borrowing. The RBA lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points in September to 4.60%, its fourth increase this year and the highest setting in almost 15 years.
Cotality estimates those four rises have reduced the borrowing capacity of a median-income household by close to $90,000 since February. That is roughly a 9% drop in purchasing power. With headline inflation at 4.0% in August and the trimmed mean at 3.6%, still above the RBA’s 2 to 3% target range, relief may not come quickly.
Put simply, prices have eased, but what many buyers can borrow has fallen by more. That helps explain why softer prices have not brought buyers rushing back.
Values have eased after a strong run
According to Cotality, national home values fell 1.1% in September, the sixth monthly decline in a row, leaving them 5.2% below the March peak. Over the September quarter values were down 3.7%, and over the past 12 months they are essentially unchanged.
Regional markets have held up better than the capitals. Combined regional values are still 5.6% higher than a year ago, while the capitals are down 1.8%. Regional Queensland, which includes the Sunshine Coast, eased 2.5% over the quarter but remains 6.3% higher over the year.
For many local homeowners who have owned for a few years, this looks more like a pullback after strong growth than a reversal of it.
Homes are taking longer to sell
This was the part of the pack that stood out most to me. Nationally, the median time on market has stretched to 41 days, up from 26 days a year ago. Perth is still the quickest capital city market at 26 days, although that is more than double its pace a year ago, while Canberra is the slowest at 50 days. In regional Queensland, selling times have gone from 22 days to 39.
Vendors are also accepting larger discounts from their original asking price. The national median discount is now 4.2%, up from 3.2% a year ago. In the capital cities it has widened to 4.4%, the largest in Cotality’s five-year series, and since June capital city discounts have been bigger than those in regional areas, where the median is 3.9%. Regional Queensland sits at 4.3%, the widest of any regional market in the pack.
Auction results point the same way. The four-week average clearance rate across the capitals was just over 48% in early October, down from 64.4% in late February, and Cotality notes that more vendors appear to be choosing private treaty instead.
More homes on the market, but fewer new sellers
Spring usually brings a lift in new listings, but this year it has been muted. Cotality counted 36,440 new listings nationally in the four weeks to 11 October, 7.9% fewer than a year earlier and 11.9% below the five-year average.
Total stock on the market tells a different story. It has climbed to 145,573, up 19.1% on last year and now slightly above the five-year average. That is quite a turnaround from the start of the year, when advertised stock was well below both 2025 levels and the five-year average.
In other words, it is not that more people are selling. Homes are staying on the market for longer, so stock is building up. Regional Queensland shows this clearly. New listings are flat on last year, yet total listings are up 31%, the biggest rise of any regional market.
The rental market is cooling
Rents rose just 0.5% nationally over the September quarter, the smallest quarterly increase since late 2024, and annual rental growth has eased to 5.5%. At the same time, Cotality’s national rental vacancy rate rose to 2.0% in September, its highest level since January 2025. For tenants, that may mean a little more choice. For landlords, it may mean pricing and presentation matter more than they did a year ago.
Because rents are still rising while values have dipped, gross rental yields have lifted to 3.85%, their highest level since August 2019. In regional Queensland, rents are up 6.3% over the year with a gross yield of 4.3%. Investor lending fell 10.2% in the June quarter, so it will be interesting to see whether stronger yields tempt some investors back.
The bigger picture
It is worth remembering just how important housing is to Australian households. Cotality values the nation’s residential real estate at $12.1 trillion, about two and a half times the $4.8 trillion held in superannuation. More than half of all household wealth is held in housing, which is why every shift in the market is felt so widely.
Cotality’s chart of the month also looks further ahead. The Federal Government’s Centre for Population expects Australia to add around 3.6 million people over the ten years to 2034-35, with Brisbane projected to add close to half a million residents. Cotality points out that housing supply is already struggling to keep pace with demand. Over the longer term, that imbalance may help support property values, even when the short term is softer.
What this could mean for sellers
When buyers have more choice and more time, pricing and presentation matter more. Longer selling times and wider discounts tend to go hand in hand, and in my experience, homes that sit on the market too long often end up needing bigger price adjustments later. Getting the price right from the start, presenting the home well and having a clear campaign plan can make a real difference.
It may also help to set realistic expectations on timing. A campaign that might have wrapped up in about three weeks a year ago could now take closer to five or six.
What this could mean for buyers
For buyers, conditions are more balanced than they have been for some time. There is more stock to choose from, more time to do your homework, and in many cases more room to negotiate.
The trade-off is borrowing capacity. If your pre-approval was issued before the September rate rise, it may be worth checking with your lender that it still reflects what you can borrow today.
Bringing it back to the Sunshine Coast
Regional Queensland covers a lot of ground, from the Gold Coast to Cairns, so these figures give us the direction of travel rather than the full local story. The best guide to what your home could achieve is still recent local sales evidence and the buyer activity we are seeing at open homes week to week.
If you are thinking about selling or buying in the next six to twelve months and would like to understand what these shifts mean for your property, I am always happy to have a no-pressure chat. A clear picture of where your home sits in today’s market can help you make confident decisions about timing, preparation and price.
Get in touch with us today and and let’s give you fantastic results that you deserve.
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Sources: Cotality Home Value Index and Monthly Housing Chart Pack (October 2026)
